Volatility modeling

The Cliquet Option: A Volatility Case Study

Every few chapters, Wilmott stops talking about theory and shows you a concrete product that exposes why the theory matters so much. Chapter 56 does exactly this. The cliquet option is a structured product that looks innocent on the surface but hides extreme sensitivity to volatility modeling. If you price it with the wrong volatility assumptions, you can be off by a factor of ten in your risk estimate. That is not a rounding error. That is a blowup waiting to happen.

Volatility Modeling: The Big Picture

You cannot see volatility. You cannot touch it. You cannot even measure it precisely at any given instant. And yet, it is the single most important input in options pricing. Get volatility wrong and nothing else matters. Get it right and you can make a lot of money.

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