Crash Modeling: Preparing for Market Meltdowns
The jump diffusion models from the previous chapter have a fundamental problem. You have to estimate the probability of a crash, and that is incredibly hard to do. How often does a 15% market drop happen? Once every 5 years? 10 years? 50 years? Nobody really knows. Chapter 58 of Wilmott’s book takes a completely different approach. Instead of guessing crash probabilities, it asks: what if the worst happens?