Chapter 4 asks a question that sounds obvious until you think about it: do professional commodity traders make the same psychological mistakes as retail stock investors? Nofsinger, Chatjuthamard, and Dai survey the behavioral finance literature applied to futures markets. The answer is mostly yes, but with nuance.
We’ve spent the last two weeks retelling Tim Richards’ “Investing Psychology” (ISBN: 978-1-118-72219-0). It’s been a bracing, sometimes painful journey through the glitches of the human mind.
Twenty-five posts. That is what it took to retell this book. And honestly, when I started this series back on February 4th, I was not sure I would finish it. A post a day for almost a month is a lot. But here we are.
So after all the chapters, all the experiments, all the arguments back and forth, Burton and Shah finally ask the big question. Who wins? Is the market efficient or not? Time for a new theory entirely?
We’ve reached the end of the tour. In the final chapter of “Investing Psychology,” Tim Richards pulls back the curtain on the entire investment industry.
Can you grow a stock market bubble inside a classroom? Not a metaphor. An actual bubble where prices rise above what everyone in the room knows the thing is worth?
You know all those behavioral biases we talked about in earlier chapters? Loss aversion, status quo bias, overconfidence. The big question hanging over all of them is simple. Where do they come from? Are we born with them? Did we learn them from our parents and culture? Or is there something deeper going on inside our actual brains?
Try selling your house by tomorrow. Not in a month, not after listing it and staging it and waiting for offers. Tomorrow. For cash.
Stocks make more money than bonds. Everyone knows that. But here’s the thing. They make way more money than bonds. And when economists tried to explain why the gap is so big, they couldn’t. Not with their standard models. Not even close.
What if I told you that the day of the week affects your stock returns? Or that one specific month is consistently better than the other eleven? Sounds like astrology for finance people, right?
Every trader has said something like this at some point: “The stock has good fundamentals, it’s cheap, but the price action looks terrible. I’m going to wait.”
Benjamin Graham is probably the most famous contrarian investor who ever lived. Together with David Dodd, he invented what we now call value investing. The whole idea is simple. Buy stocks that other people don’t like. Stocks with low prices compared to their earnings or book value. Cheap stocks. Unpopular stocks.
In 1992 two economists published a paper that accidentally shook the foundations of modern finance. They did not mean to. They were actually trying to defend the system. But what they found in the data was so clear and so stubborn that it changed how everyone thought about stock prices.
You ever played the Madden NFL video game? For years, EA Sports put a top player on the cover. And then something funny kept happening. The cover athlete would have a terrible next season. Injuries, bad stats, team losses. Fans started calling it the Madden Curse. Some players actively tried to avoid being on the cover.
Every day you make decisions based on past data. What to eat for breakfast. How to approach your boss with a question. You look at what happened before and try to predict what will happen next.
People are sticky. Not physically. Mentally. We stick to whatever we already have, whatever is already happening, whatever is the default. And this stickiness costs investors real money every single day.
You know that feeling when you buy a stock right after seeing a scary headline, and then two weeks later you wonder what you were thinking? That’s a perception bias doing its work on your brain.
Continuing our deep dive into Chapter 1 of Tim Richards’ “Investing Psychology.” Last time, we talked about how our senses lie. Today, we’re looking at why we think we’re in charge when we definitely aren’t.
You know that feeling when you lose a $20 bill on the street? It ruins your whole afternoon. But finding $20 on the street? Nice, sure. You smile for maybe five minutes and forget about it.
Wandering around the average investor’s mind is like taking a tour of Wonderland with the White Rabbit. Most of what we think is true is actually false.
Economics has a favorite character. The Rational Man. He always knows what he wants. He always picks the best option. He never panics, never gets confused, never makes a dumb choice because he’s tired or emotional.
I’ve spent over 20 years in IT and a lot of time looking at charts and numbers. One thing I’ve learned is that the math is often the easy part. The hard part is the gray matter between your ears.
You ever watch financial news and hear someone say “the market broke through resistance” or “the market looks tired”? These phrases sound like the market is some living creature with feelings. And if you come from a science background, your first reaction is probably: what does that even mean?
Remember the dot-com bubble? Companies with zero profit, sometimes zero revenue, trading at insane valuations. Analysts invented new ways to justify the prices. “Forget earnings, count the eyeballs!” And for a while, it worked.
For decades, traditional finance people had a simple answer to the noise trader problem. Milton Friedman said it. Eugene Fama said it. Fischer Black said it. The answer was: irrational traders will lose their money to smart traders and disappear.
Economics has a rule that sounds so obvious it barely needs saying. If two things are identical, they should have the same price. If they don’t, someone will buy the cheap one and sell the expensive one until prices meet in the middle. Easy. Done. Move on.
Before behavioral finance became a real academic field, people already knew something was off with markets. Traders in the 1920s had their own rules. Value investors in the 1930s had theirs. And nobody was waiting for professors to tell them the market was irrational. They lived it every day.
Chapter 2 of Burton and Shah’s book is about the math behind stock prices. Don’t run away yet. I promise to keep it simple. The chapter introduces something called CAPM and the “market model.” These are the tools that traditional finance uses to describe how stock prices should behave. And if you want to understand why behavioral finance matters, you need to know what it’s arguing against.
Chapter 1 of Burton and Shah’s book gets right to the big idea. The Efficient Market Hypothesis. EMH for short. This is the theory that traditional finance is built on, and it is the thing behavioral finance tries to tear apart.
Let me tell you something that took me years to figure out. Traditional economics and finance are built on one really big assumption: that people are rational. And not just a little rational. Perfectly, mathematically, always-making-the-best-choice rational.
I’m starting something new here. Over the next 25 days, I’m going to retell the book Behavioral Finance: Understanding the Social, Cognitive, and Economic Debates by Edwin T. Burton and Sunit N. Shah.
Twenty-nine posts. Twenty biases. Four investor types. Two guidelines. And one big idea that runs through everything: you are not a rational investor, and that is okay as long as you know it.
Chapter 27 is the final content chapter of the book, and it is the one that brings everything together. After learning about 20 biases, two guidelines, a diagnostic framework, and two case studies, we now get the detailed profiles of all four Behavioral Investor Types.
We have spent the last 23 chapters learning about 20 different biases. That is a lot of biases to keep track of. Even for a financial advisor who does this for a living, diagnosing each client for all 20 biases would take forever.
Chapter 25 is where all the theory from the entire book gets applied to actual people. Well, fictional people. But they feel real enough that you will probably recognize yourself or someone you know in one of them.
After 20 chapters of learning about individual biases, Pompian finally gets to the big question: so what do you actually DO with all this knowledge?
This is the last emotional bias in Pompian’s book, and it is an interesting one because it touches on identity. Affinity bias is about investing based on who you think you are (or who you want to be), rather than what actually makes financial sense.
The opening quote of this chapter is from Harry Markowitz, the father of Modern Portfolio Theory. He said he split his retirement contributions 50/50 between bonds and equities because he wanted to “minimize my future regret.” Not maximize returns. Not optimize the efficient frontier. Minimize regret.
You know that feeling when you are selling something on Craigslist and you think your used couch is worth $500, but nobody will pay more than $200? That is endowment bias in action. The moment you own something, it magically becomes more valuable in your mind.
Machiavelli said it over 500 years ago: “Whosoever desires constant success must change his conduct with the times.” But here we are, centuries later, and most of us still prefer to just… not change anything.
So here is what happened: I read this chapter about self-control bias and immediately thought about every time I bought something I did not really need instead of putting that money into savings. This one hits close to home for pretty much everyone.
If loss aversion is the most damaging emotional bias, overconfidence is probably the most common one. And Pompian goes as far as calling it “one of the most detrimental biases that an investor can exhibit.”
We are now entering Part 4 of Michael Pompian’s book, and this is where things get really interesting. We are moving from cognitive biases (errors in thinking) to emotional biases. And the first one is a big one.
Imagine you are on a cruise ship. Over the entire trip, you see exactly the same number of green boats and blue boats. But most of the green ones pass by toward the end of the trip, and the blue ones are spread out earlier. When you get home, which color do you remember seeing more? Green. Obviously green. You saw so many of them.
Imagine a fund manager who concentrated her entire portfolio into 15 stocks, made two huge winning bets, had four terrible losers, and ended up beating her benchmark by 6% per year over five years. Impressive track record, right? Most investors would look at those returns and throw money at her.
“Heads I win, tails it’s chance.” That quote from researchers Ellen Langer and Jane Roth opens Chapter 14 of Pompian’s book, and honestly, it is the most perfect summary of self-attribution bias I have ever seen.
Quick question: what kills more people in the United States, shark attacks or falling airplane parts? If you said shark attacks, you are wrong. Falling airplane parts are actually 30 times more likely to kill you. But shark attacks are dramatic, they are all over the news, and they make great movie plots. So your brain says: sharks are clearly the bigger threat.
Yogi Berra once said: “You better cut the pizza in four pieces, because I’m not hungry enough to eat six.” It is funny because it is absurd. The amount of pizza does not change based on how you slice it. But here is the thing: when it comes to money and investing, people make exactly this kind of mistake all the time. They just do not realize it.
Let me ask you something. Is the population of Canada greater or less than 20 million? Now, without looking it up, guess the actual number.
Here is a question for you. You find $500 on the street. Same week, you get a $500 check from your mother as a gift. Is this the same money? Logically, yes. A dollar is a dollar. But here is the thing: most people will treat these two amounts completely differently. The street money? Easy come, easy go. Let’s spend it on something fun. Mom’s check? Better save it. She said it was for a rainy day.
David Beckham said “Hindsight is a wonderful thing.” Chapter 9 is the last of the belief perseverance biases in Pompian’s book, and it might be the most relatable one. Because we all do this. Every single one of us.
Abraham Lincoln said: “I claim not to have controlled events, but confess plainly that events have controlled me.” If Lincoln could admit that, why can’t most investors?
Colin Powell said it best: “Fit no stereotypes.” Chapter 7 of Pompian’s book is about representativeness bias, which is basically your brain using shortcuts and stereotypes instead of doing actual math.
Francis Bacon said it centuries ago: humans are “more moved and excited by affirmatives than by negatives.” Chapter 6 of Pompian’s book is about confirmation bias, and honestly, this might be the most dangerous bias in the whole book.
Warren Buffett opens this chapter with a quote about needing a sound framework for decisions and the ability to keep emotions from corroding that framework. Chapter 5 is about one specific way emotions corrode it: by making you too slow to update your beliefs.
You know that feeling when you buy something and then find out there was a better deal elsewhere? That little knot in your stomach? Congratulations, you just experienced cognitive dissonance.
Chapter 3 of Pompian’s book is short but important. It is the setup chapter. Before getting into 20 specific biases over the next 20 chapters, he wants you to understand what biases are, why they matter, and how they break down into categories.
Chapter 2 of Pompian’s book is basically a history lesson. But here’s the thing: it is a surprisingly interesting one. Because when you trace where behavioral finance came from, you realize that humans have been making the same stupid money mistakes for centuries.
There is a great quote at the start of this chapter. Meir Statman from Santa Clara University says: “People in standard finance are rational. People in behavioral finance are normal.” That one sentence pretty much captures the whole idea of this book.
I just finished reading a book that honestly changed how I think about investing. And I’ve been investing for a while now.
Up to this point in the book, Malkiel has described theories built on a simple assumption: investors are rational. They weigh risks, calculate value, and make sensible decisions. Chapter 10 throws all of that out the window. Because here’s the thing. People are not rational. And two psychologists, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, spent decades proving it.
So we made it. 17 posts later, and we’ve covered the entire “Behavioral Finance for Private Banking” by Thorsten Hens, Enrico G. De Giorgi, and Kremena K. Bachmann. That was a lot of ground.
So we made it through all 15 chapters of Behavioral Finance and Investor Types by Michael M. Pompian. Here’s what I think about the whole thing.
This is a retelling of Chapter 14 (Conclusions) from “Behavioral Finance for Private Banking” by Thorsten Hens, Enrico G. De Giorgi, and Kremena K. Bachmann (Wiley, 2018).
So we made it. 9 chapters, 17 posts, one brain that’s a little more aware of its own tricks.
This was “Investing Psychology: The Effects of Behavioral Finance on Investment Choice and Bias” by Tim Richards (ISBN: 978-1-118-72219-0, Wiley 2014). And it was worth every page.
This is it. Chapter 15 of Behavioral Finance and Investor Types by Michael M. Pompian is where everything comes together. All those chapters about biases, personality types, asset classes, and financial planning? They were building up to this. The final chapter answers the obvious question: okay, I know my investor type, now what do I actually do with my portfolio?
Theory is nice. But does behavioral finance actually work when real people sit across from real bankers with real money on the table?
We made it. Chapter 9 is the final content chapter of Tim Richards’ “Investing Psychology.” And it’s not really about new ideas. It’s a wrap-up. A summary. A last attempt to remind you what you should have learned, and why most of us will still ignore it.
Chapter 14 of Behavioral Finance and Investor Types by Michael M. Pompian takes a step back from psychology and biases. Instead it asks a very basic question: do you actually have a plan? Not an investment strategy. Not a stock pick. A plan. Because financial planning and investing are not the same thing, and a lot of people confuse the two.
This is a retelling of Chapter 12 (Fintech) from “Behavioral Finance for Private Banking” by Thorsten Hens, Enrico G. De Giorgi, and Kremena K. Bachmann (Wiley, 2018).
Chapter 8 of Investing Psychology is where Tim Richards takes everything from the book and turns it into a myth-busting session. Ten myths. All of them things most people believe. All of them wrong. Or at least, way more complicated than we think.
Chapter 13 of Behavioral Finance and Investor Types by Michael M. Pompian is about the single most important investment decision you will ever make. Not which stocks to buy. Not when to buy them. It is about how you split your money across different types of investments. That is asset allocation.
Part 1 covered stocks and the basics of asset classes. Now in the second half of Chapter 12 of Behavioral Finance and Investor Types, Michael Pompian walks through the rest of the investment universe: bonds, hedge funds, real assets, and finally how to put them all together into a portfolio.
Previous: Chapter 6 Part 2
After six chapters of bad news about our brains, Chapter 7 finally gives us something we can actually use. Richards calls it “Good Enough Investing.” Not perfect investing. Not beat-the-market-every-year investing. Just good enough.
Here’s a question most people never think about. When you walk into a private bank and sit down with an advisor, what exactly is the process? Is there even a process? Or does the advisor just pick investments based on their own favorites and hope for the best?
We continue with Chapter 6 of Tim Richards’ Investing Psychology. In Part 1, we covered the early debiasing strategies. Now we get into the harder stuff: why we can’t let go, why we fall in love with stocks, and whether “good enough” is actually good enough.
Chapter 10 of “Behavioral Finance for Private Banking” is where everything from the earlier chapters comes together. All the biases, prospect theory, loss aversion, mental accounting, it all converges here. Into one practical question: how do you figure out how much risk a client can actually handle?
Up to this point in Behavioral Finance and Investor Types, Michael Pompian has been talking about psychology, biases, and investor personalities. Chapter 12 switches gears. Now he lays out what you can actually invest in. Because knowing your own biases is great, but at some point you need to understand the tools on the table.
Chapter 6 is called “Debiasing.” After five chapters of telling us how broken our brains are, Richards finally starts talking about what we can actually do about it. The short answer: there is no magic fix. But there are tools that help.
You’ve probably heard the standard advice. When you’re young, put your money in stocks. As you get older, shift to bonds. Simple. Clean. Fits on a napkin.
If the Preserver is the cautious tortoise and the Follower goes with the crowd, the Accumulator is the person at the poker table who shoves all in and stares you down while doing it. Chapter 11 of Behavioral Finance and Investor Types by Michael M. Pompian introduces the most aggressive of the four behavioral investor types.
So you picked your ideal portfolio. Good stocks, some bonds, maybe real estate. Everything is balanced perfectly. Now what? Do you just sit there and never touch it again?
We continue with the second half of Chapter 5 from Tim Richards’ “Investing Psychology.” If Part 1 was about how the professional investing industry takes your money, Part 2 is about how corporations and your own trading habits finish the job.
Chapter 10 of Behavioral Finance and Investor Types by Michael M. Pompian introduces the Independent. If the Follower from the last chapter was the passenger, the Independent is the person who insists on driving. And reading the map. And ignoring the GPS because they “know a shortcut.”
When we get sick, we go to a doctor. When something breaks, we call a professional. So when it comes to investing, we hand our money to financial experts. Makes sense, right?
Chapter 7 of “Behavioral Finance for Private Banking” is about structured products. If you’ve never heard of them, don’t worry. Most people haven’t. But by the end of 2007, there were more than 340 billion Swiss francs invested in them in Switzerland alone. That’s 6.5% of all assets under management. Over 20,000 different structured products listed on the Swiss stock exchange.
Chapter 9 of Behavioral Finance and Investor Types by Michael M. Pompian introduces the Follower. And honestly, this one probably describes more people than any other type in the book.
In Part 1 we covered how groups and social pressure mess with your investment decisions. Now let’s get into something even sneakier: how language, trust, and social networks warp the way we think about money.
This is a retelling of Chapter 6, Part 2 (sections 6.7-6.9) from “Behavioral Finance for Private Banking” by Thorsten Hens, Enrico G. De Giorgi, and Kremena K. Bachmann (Wiley, 2018).
Chapter 8 of Behavioral Finance and Investor Types by Michael M. Pompian introduces the first of the Behavioral Investor Types: the Preserver. And honestly, if you’ve ever been too scared to invest your savings because “what if the market crashes tomorrow,” this chapter is about you.
This is a retelling of Chapter 6 Part 1 (sections 6.1 through 6.6) from “Behavioral Finance for Private Banking” by Thorsten Hens, Enrico G. De Giorgi, and Kremena K. Bachmann (Wiley, 2018).
Chapter 7 of Behavioral Finance and Investor Types by Michael M. Pompian is where theory finally meets practice. After six chapters of background, frameworks, and definitions, you actually get to take the quizzes and figure out what type of investor you are. Two quizzes, to be specific.
Chapter 4 of Investing Psychology is where Tim Richards talks about something we all deal with but rarely notice: other people messing with our financial decisions. Not on purpose. Just by existing around us.
Previous: Chapter 3 Part 1
We’re still in Chapter 3 of Tim Richards’ “Investing Psychology.” In Part 1, we covered how situations mess with your head. Now let’s talk about something even weirder: your mood, the weather, and why shouting “Fire!” in a theater is basically what happens during a market crash.
This is a retelling of Chapter 5 (Diagnostic Tests for Investment Personality) from “Behavioral Finance for Private Banking” by Thorsten Hens, Enrico G. De Giorgi, and Kremena K. Bachmann (Wiley, 2018).
Chapter 6 of Behavioral Finance and Investor Types by Michael M. Pompian is where it all comes together. After two chapters on personality theory and personality testing, Pompian finally introduces the thing the whole book is building toward: his Behavioral Investor Type (BIT) framework.
Chapter 4 covered the history of personality theory. Now in Chapter 5 of Behavioral Finance and Investor Types, Michael Pompian moves to the practical side: how do you actually test for personality? Because having a theory is nice, but you need a way to measure it. And that’s what this chapter is about.
Previous: Chapter 2 Part 2
You survived your own ego in Chapter 2. Good job. But here’s the problem. Even if you fix your overconfidence, your environment can still ruin your investing decisions. Chapter 3 of Tim Richards’ book is all about situational finance. The idea that the world around you pushes you into decisions you think are your own.
Chapter 4 of “Behavioral Finance for Private Banking” is short but it hits hard. It asks one simple question: what is actually happening inside your brain when you make money decisions?
Traditional finance has this idea that money is the great equalizer. Doesn’t matter if you’re from Japan or Nigeria or Norway. We all want the same thing: good returns, low risk. Press a few buttons, buy some stocks, done.
In Part 1 we talked about overconfidence, loss aversion, and the disposition effect. Now let’s keep going with the rest of Chapter 2. This part gets into emotions, Black Swans, mental accounting, and some practical ideas on how to not sabotage yourself.
Chapter 4 of Behavioral Finance and Investor Types by Michael M. Pompian takes a step back from finance entirely. Instead, it walks through the history of personality theory. Why? Because before you can classify investor types, you need to understand how psychologists figured out personality types in the first place.
This is a retelling of Chapter 2 (second half) from “Behavioral Finance for Private Banking” by Thorsten Hens, Enrico G. De Giorgi, and Kremena K. Bachmann (Wiley, 2018).
Chapter 2 of Tim Richards’ book is called “Self-Image and Self-Worth.” And the title tells you everything. This chapter is about how your ego quietly destroys your investment returns.
Chapter 3 of Behavioral Finance and Investor Types by Michael M. Pompian is where the real meat starts. This is the catalog of all the ways your brain sabotages your investing. Pompian calls them “the building blocks” and splits them into two big groups: cognitive biases and emotional biases.
Chapter 2 of “Behavioral Finance for Private Banking” is where the book gets really practical. This is where Hens, De Giorgi, and Bachmann lay out the specific mental traps that mess up our investment decisions. And there are a lot of them.
This is Part 2 of Chapter 1 from “Investing Psychology” by Tim Richards. If you missed the first part, go read Chapter 1 Part 1 first. We covered how your senses trick you. Now we get into how your brain takes shortcuts and how other people’s behavior messes with your money.
Chapter 2 of Behavioral Finance and Investor Types by Michael M. Pompian opens with a quote I really like. Meir Statman from Santa Clara University said: “People in standard finance are rational. People in behavioral finance are normal.” That pretty much sums up the whole chapter.
Previous: Intro post
Chapter 1 of Investing Psychology is called “Sensory Finance.” And it starts with a punch to the ego.
This is a retelling of Chapter 1 (Introduction) from “Behavioral Finance for Private Banking” by Thorsten Hens, Enrico G. De Giorgi, and Kremena K. Bachmann (Wiley, 2018).
Chapter 1 of Behavioral Finance and Investor Types by Michael M. Pompian opens with a Picasso quote: “I’d like to live as a poor man, with lots of money.” That pretty much sets the tone. We all want financial success, but something keeps getting in the way. And that something is usually us.
So I just finished reading this book called Behavioral Finance and Investor Types by Michael M. Pompian. And honestly? It messed with my head a little. In a good way.
So I just finished reading “Behavioral Finance for Private Banking” by Thorsten Hens, Enrico G. De Giorgi, and Kremena K. Bachmann. Second edition, published by Wiley in 2018. ISBN: 9781119453703.
I just finished reading “Investing Psychology: The Effects of Behavioral Finance on Investment Choice and Bias” by Tim Richards. And I need to talk about it.